All in Energy

Iran Oil Exports: 8 Waivers and the OPEC Meeting

◢ Iran’s oil exports are likely to remain limited in 2019, with significant negative impact on Iran’s economy. Last month, the Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran’s energy sector as part of its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against. But it nevertheless sought to prevent an unhelpful spike in oil prices ahead of the midterm elections. As a result the United States issued eight waivers to importers of Iranian oil:.

Iran’s Oil Exports Rise Month-to-Month Ahead of Sanctions Deadline

◢ A new report from TankerTrackers.com indicates that Iran exported an average 2.2 million bpd of crude oil in the first two weeks of October, a 10 percent rise from the September average. October’s higher export volumes could reflect long-standing customers buying more oil ahead of planned reductions in November, when sanctions are expected to prevent many refiners from taking Iranian crude.

Iran’s Oil Exports May Be More Resilient Than Headlines Suggest

◢ Iran is resorting to “Houdini tricks” to sustain oil exports as US sanctions loom and new data suggests the magic might be working. While S&P Global Platts has reported Iran’s September exports at about 1.7 million bpd, marking an 11 percent decline from August, data from TankerTrackers.com, puts the export volume at just over 2 million bpd. The divergence in the datasets represents not merely 300,000 bpd, but also the difference between two narratives about the state of Iran’s exports in the face of returning US sanctions.

Can Iran Weather the Oil-Sanctions Storm?

◢ In the coming weeks, the US administration will intensify its economic pressure on Iran through sanctions designed to curtail the country’s oil exports. Given that these exports account for a significant percentage of state revenue, the measures will hit Iran hard. Yet the sanctions will also have an impact on energy markets far beyond Iran, and may lead to a rise in global oil prices.

Can Chinese Investment Bring Sunshine Back to Iran's Solar Industry?

◢ Renewable energy has been one of the brightest sectors in the Iranian economy, achieving 70 percent growth in the last Iranian year according to official data. But this encouraging growth is now in doubt. The Trump administration’s unilateral withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear deal has brought economic uncertainty for local investors and made foreign direct investment increasingly difficult. While there are steps the government can take to reassure local and foreign investors, as with other sectors of Iran’s economy, the withdrawal of European investors from Iran’s solar industry may mean that “Chinese money turns out to be the only option.”

Could Trump Deliver Iran an Oil Windfall?

◢ The president’s recent statement that OPEC may have something to do with the president’s own decision to create a crisis with Iran. While attention is duly paid to how much Americans have to pay at the pump, a more subtle and complicated story will soon play out with respect to Iran and the reapplication of US sanctions ordered by Trump on May 8, 2018. In fact, unless oil prices are contained, the primary result of the president’s action may be to ensure that Iran profits from the oil market risks that sanctions have created.

As Trump Goes Nuclear On Iranian Oil, Europe Must Match His Brinkmanship

◢ As the US chooses the "nuclear option" on Iran's oil, Europe must find leverage and force the US to walk back on its announced policy of driving down Iranian oil exports to zero. The negative consequences for European economy could prove significant, and the risks of regional escalation are high. There are three measures that the EU can pursue to pressure Trump and prevent a dangerous escalation.

Total CEO Pouyanné: Transatlantic Partners Risk Gifting Iran to 'China and Russia'

◢ Speaking on Thursday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington D.C. think tank, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné faced several questions about his company’s recently announced decision to wind down operations in Iran following the reapplication of secondary sanctions by the Trump administration. Pouyanné warned that the “Atlantic allies” risk giving “all the Middle East region to China and Russia.”

Iran’s Energy Sector Takes Stock After Year of Ambivalent Results

◢ The last Iranian year, which ended in March, saw several interesting developments for Iranian energy, both domestically and internationally. Despite persistent challenges, Iran is keen to build on the momentum of last year’s developments. In doing so, the question of whether the Trump administration will stay in the JCPOA and renew sanctions waivers on May 12 will have great importance.

Total CEO Pouyanné Considers Measures to Protect European Business in Iran

◢ In a major interview given to French newspaper Le Monde, Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné was asked about the “American threat” to the company’s “important gas project” in Iran.

◢ Pouyanné’s forthright response marks perhaps the first time that a major European executive has publicly called for a diplomatic intervention to protect commercial interests in Iran. He points to the 1990s blocking statutes and sanctions waivers as a potential tool in the current environment. 

Oil Giant Total Takes to Twitter to Underscore Iran Commitment

◢ In a series of tweets published on Tuesday, Total's press office pushed back on reports that the company is rethinking its Iran strategy in light of pressure from the United States. 

◢ The tweets emphasize that Total CEO Patrick Pouyanné sees no political barriers to the South Pars gas deal, and is simply waiting to see whether following Congressional action legal conditions will allow the deal to move forward. 

Extention of Key Incentive Scheme Boosts Iran's Renewable Energy Market

◢ The recent extension of Iran's Feed-in-Tariffs scheme has renewable energy investors pushing to close deals in the next 12 months to take advantage of the strong government incentive packages. 

◢ But FiTs won't last forever, and Iranian energy authorities are working to improve the general mechanisms that support foreign investment in Iran's renewable sector, including the use of Iran's first competitive bidding tenders for renewable energy projects.