An enduring hawkishness shapes France-Iran relations and the French leadership may discourage Biden from making conciliatory gestures towards Iran.
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All tagged Hassan Rouhani
An enduring hawkishness shapes France-Iran relations and the French leadership may discourage Biden from making conciliatory gestures towards Iran.
Maintaining maximum pressure to inflict more pain won’t bring Tehran back to the negotiating table or halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Insisting that Iran must abandon its missile program could see Joe Biden fall into the hardliners’ trap and make a new agreement impossible.
In Tehran and Washington alike, the impact of Biden’s election on US-Iran relations has been the subject of strategizing for months. Now, the Biden presidency is a real political fact.
With less than a year until Iran’s presidential election, political camps are making preparations for what is expected to be a watershed contest to decide who will succeed moderate president Hassan Rouhani.
Iran could face a devastating second wave of coronavirus infections as the country re-opens, but keeping the economy closed down without a safety net would have likely led to unrest.
The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), a global body that sets standards to combat money laundering and terrorist finance, has placed Iran back on its infamous “blacklist,” following the failure of Iranian policymakers to enact two key bills in accordance with an action plan set in 2016.
In the first two weeks of December, Iranian government officials and business leaders participated in bilateral economic summits with counterparts from Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan—the highest-level economic exchanges with these countries in several years. Iran is expanding its “neighborhood policy” to Central Asia as it seeks to grow its non-oil exports.
The aftermath of the protests presents significant challenges for the Iranian leadership. The Islamic Republic is dealing with severe economic difficulties and a fraying of the political fabric. Washington will use the recent unrest to argue against Europe engaging with Tehran. But diplomacy remains the only viable path to deescalation. Europeans, led by Emmanuel Macron, must protect the space for dialogue.
Iran’s programmers had to battle a suspicious state and a dismissive public to usher Iran into the digital age. Now, in the aftermath of a nationwide internet blackout, triggered in response to the recent protests, the resolve of the country’s programming community is being tested like never before.
◢ A free trade agreement between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) will come into force on October 27, enabling preferential trade between Iran and a trading bloc comprised of 183 million people. But a leading research body has cautioned that the “low level of Iran’s commercial complimentary” with the EEAU market will temper prospects in the short term.
◢ During a meeting with the Islamic Republic's political elite, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated calls for a “resistance economy,” but also placed new emphasis on the “increasing the ease of doing business.” The specificity of some of Khamenei’s advice and observations about Iran’s economy suggests a greater appreciation for the practical importance of economic reforms that go beyond well-worn political slogans.
◢ Aiming to achieve self-sufficiency in the production of gasoline, Iran recently launched the third phase of the Persian Gulf Star Refinery, after a massive investment of USD 4 billion. But given rising consumption, the future of genuine gasoline self-sufficiency in Iran might be less bright than the new developments at the Persian Gulf Star suggest.
◢ With the UK poised to leave the European Union, Brexit Britain can no longer rely on EU economic measures to protect the Iran nuclear deal. The UK government needs to parallelize its efforts with those of the EU, following the example of EU member states such as France and Austria in order to explore the use of state-owned financing entities to open sanctions-compliant investment channels. The Iranian government should insist that the UK shows greater initiative as a party to the JCPOA.
◢ The Trump administration's new Iran policy focuses largely on targeting the IRGC in the name of American national security. But IRGC will not stop its expansionism in the Middle East because of sanctions and sanctions will not weaken the Iranian government at home.
◢ If the Trump administration continues to harm Iran's economy, the biggest losers will be the Iranian people, caught between punitive U.S. policies and an illiberal regime.
