Apr 24

Apr 24 SIPRI Has Revised Four Years of Data on Iran's Military Spending

SIPRI has corrected its data on Iran’s military spending, applying a more relevant exchange rate for dollar conversions. Instead of ranking as the 14th largest military spender in the world in 2021, Iran was actually ranked 39th.

May 5

May 5 SIPRI Has Overstated Iran's Military Spending For Years

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

Policy

SIPRI produces the world’s most authoritative data on global military expenditure and the arms trade. But for years they have been overstating the size of Iran’s military budget.

Mar 30

Mar 30 Eyeing Oil Revenues, Iran’s Public Sector Workers Demand Higher Wages

Zep Kalb

Economy

Iran’s public sector workers often mobilise during annual budget negotiations, a drawn-out process involving multiple state actors and institutions.

Oct 14

Oct 14 Iran’s Emboldened Workers Press New President for More Concessions

Zep Kalb

Society

A wide range of social groups in Iran have been mobilising to express their socioeconomic grievances. Grappling with concessions made by the previous administration, Iran’s new president is on the back foot.

Feb 10

Feb 10 Iran's Government Falling into a Debt Trap of Its Own Making

Navid Kalhor

Economy

◢ President Rouhani’s budget proposal for the upcoming Iranian year will see the government run a deficit amounting to about 10 percent of GDP or 60 percent of the state’s general budget, excluding oil revenues and withdrawals from the National Development Fund. Rather than increase tax collection to ease budget gaps, the Rouhani administration plans to tap Iran’s nascent debt markets to cover its public spending requirements.

Dec 19

Dec 19 Iran Budget Under Scrutiny As Oil Revenues Fall

Navid Kalhor

Economy

◢ Next week, President Hassan Rouhani will submit a budget proposal for the forthcoming Persian year (covering March 2019-2020). Currently, the Rouhani administration has few options as it seeks to avoid a budget deficit. Yet the political tradeoffs required when devising a budget under sanctions may prove more difficult to manage than the economic challenges.

Jan 2

Jan 2 Iranian Protests And The Working Class

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

Economy

◢ There is growing consensus that the core constituency of the recent wave of protests in Iran is working class youth who feel "forgotten" in the country's economic plan.

◢ The expected post-sanctions windfall has yet to materialize and the Rouhani administration will need to decide whether it will compromise on its austerity-type budgets in order to offer some near-term economic relief.

May 28

May 28 To Break With Austerity, Rouhani Must Deliver on Sovereign Debt Sale

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj

Economy

◢ To win foreign investment, Iran's needs to boost development expenditures. But expansionary fiscal policy will require a new source of revenue, as oil sales remain stagnant and tax rises remain politically risky.

◢ A sovereign debt sale, long discussed by Iranian officials, is the fundamental way Iran can find the revenues to self-fund growth. The Rouhani administration must focus on making its bond offering a reality.