At the end of January, the board of Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) took the decision to liquidate the company.
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All tagged economy
At the end of January, the board of Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges (INSTEX) took the decision to liquidate the company.
If Iranian leaders are concerned that the “economic war” might resume if Trump returns to office 2024, they ought to remember that they are in an economic war right now. The restoration of the JCPOA represents an opportunity for a useful ceasefire.
Iran’s economic stagnation and widening inequality are top concerns for Iranian voters. It is therefore no surprise that during the three televised debates, candidates ganged up on Abdolnasser Hemmati, until recently Iran’s central bank governor.
A public opinion survey conducted in October by researchers at the University of Maryland provides insights into how the Iranian public is reacting to an economy battered by U.S. sanctions and ravaged by the COVID-19 pandemic
In Tehran and Washington alike, the impact of Biden’s election on US-Iran relations has been the subject of strategizing for months. Now, the Biden presidency is a real political fact.
The rollercoaster ride that has taken the rial to a historic low of IRR 215,000 to the dollar does not tell us as much about the health of the Iranian economy as is widely assumed.
Iran could face a devastating second wave of coronavirus infections as the country re-opens, but keeping the economy closed down without a safety net would have likely led to unrest.
Several reports released by key ministries and research centers over the last few weeks warned of dire economic if the government did not rollback the lockdown, despite warnings from health experts about the risks of new infections.
For the first time in 60 years, Iran has requested a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), seeking emergency financing to support its efforts to combat COVID-19. If the IMF fails to provide Iran financial assistance that it makes available to countries in similar situations, the fund’s reputation will take a hit, as the fact of effective American control over its operations is laid bare.
Iran’s business community is taking stock after the assassination of Major General Qassem Soleimani as the possibility of a direct conflict with the United States threatens serious consequences for an already beleaguered Iranian economy. Both the currency market and stock market saw further losses on Monday, the final day of a three-day period of mourning.
Today, a new Iranian precariat is seeking economic justice. Iranian economic planners and policymakers, like their fellow technocrats around the world, are struggling to find the pathway to continued growth in the face of factional infighting and foreign interference.
At first glance, the IMF’s new projection that Iran’s economy will contact 9.5% this year seems to support the Trump administration’s claims that its “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign is bringing the Iranian economy to the brink. But Iran’s economy is poised rebound to zero growth next year—despite the sanctions.
◢ New data indicate that, while Donald Trump’s policy of “maximum pressure” has reduced Iranian oil exports to near zero and seriously hurt Iran’s economy, it has not caused anything resembling economic collapse. Furthermore, these data suggest that the economy is not in a steep decline, one that would anytime soon force Iran to capitulate.
◢ During a meeting with the Islamic Republic's political elite, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei reiterated calls for a “resistance economy,” but also placed new emphasis on the “increasing the ease of doing business.” The specificity of some of Khamenei’s advice and observations about Iran’s economy suggests a greater appreciation for the practical importance of economic reforms that go beyond well-worn political slogans.
◢ In an op-ed published in the German newspaper Handelsblatt, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas declared that the “the US and Europe have been drifting apart for years.” In order to defend the JCPOA and protect European companies active in Iran from U.S. sanctions, Maas has outlined three initiatives: “establishing payment channels independent of the US, a European monetary fund, and an independent SWIFT [payments] system.” This has given many in Iran hope that Europe might still be able to create an “economic package” to save the JCPOA. But Maas’s vision is not an economic package. It is an economic process, which may prove transformative, but only in the long term.
◢ On Monday, the Iranian rial sank to a historic low. But those Iranians who scrambled to convert their rials into dollars found it difficult to do so—as they have for months. This important detail of the current crisis has gone largely unexamined. While the determinants for demand for foreign exchange are well understood, the second determinant of market prices—foreign exchange supply—remains subject to mere passing mention. This is a mistake. Iran’s currency crisis is a supply-side story.
◢ The Iran nuclear agreement marked its third anniversary in a gloomy state. Many hoped that the resolution of the nuclear dispute would result in a new understanding between the West and Iran, opening a pathway for detente rather than confrontation. Relations between Europe and Iran have certainly made gains in this direction, but the Trump administration’s maximalist stance on Tehran has created an extremely hazardous environment for all remaining stakeholders in the nuclear deal.
◢ On Tuesday, French officials convened a briefing for French business on possible responses to Trump’s reimposition of secondary sanctions. French Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire reportedly cited the French parable that “money is the nerve of war” to describe what is at stake. He may be more correct than he realizes, as the Trump administration gears-up for an economic war on Iran.
◢ In a decisive move intended to stop the further devaluation of the rial, the Rouhani government announced it would unify the official and free market dollar exchange rates, settling on an official rate of IRR 42,000. First Vice President Eshagh Jahangiri made the announcement last night, declaring that trading dollars above the new rate would be a serious crime.
◢ There is growing consensus that the core constituency of the recent wave of protests in Iran is working class youth who feel "forgotten" in the country's economic plan.
◢ The expected post-sanctions windfall has yet to materialize and the Rouhani administration will need to decide whether it will compromise on its austerity-type budgets in order to offer some near-term economic relief.
