Proliferation Risks in the Persian Gulf and the Prospects for Chinese Nuclear Diplomacy
Download Report
February 2024 - 22 Pages
Please enter your name and email address below to download the full report. After entering your details, a download link will appear in the space below.
Executive Summary
China has significantly increased its diplomatic and economic presence in the Middle East in the past decade, with the Persian Gulf as the focus of its regional attention. Recently, China’s role as a regional mediator reached a new level when it brokered a normalization deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia. China appears keen to build on this diplomatic success. But doing so will require grappling with the ongoing threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and the impact that threat perceptions have on diplomatic and security ties. The region remains on the brink of a significant proliferation crisis, owing to Iran’s continued non-compliance with its obligations under the JCPOA. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are pursuing domestic civil nuclear programs. This report seeks to examine whether China is poised to take on more responsibility for the proliferation risks in the region as it advances its own diplomatic and commercial interests. It also explores how China might engage Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE as a potential non-proliferation leader and as a commercial partner in the development of their civil nuclear programs.
About the Authors
Ludovica Castelli is a Doctoral Researcher at the University of Leicester within the Third Nuclear Age project, funded by the European Research Council. She is currently a Visiting PhD candidate at the Università Roma Tre. Her research focuses on international relations theory and nuclear studies with a particular emphasis on poststructuralism, foreign policy analysis, and nuclear history in the Middle East.
Jacopo Scita is a Geopolitical Analyst at Cassa Depositi e Prestiti. Previously, he was a Policy Fellow at the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, focused on China’s political and economic relations in the Middle East (2022-2023). Jacopo holds a PhD in Government and International Affairs from Durham University.
