◢ New analysis by Bourse & Bazaar and the European Leadership Network, evaluates INSTEX's design and operationalization. Drawing on meetings with European officials, business leaders, and legal and financial experts engaged in discussions around the mechanism, the report sets out how INSTEX will operate, and makes clear that it is a limited solution for a specific problem.
◢ A review of trade data from the General Customs Administration of the People’s Republic of China shows that China-Iran trade has fallen dramatically in the two months following the reimposition of US secondary sanctions. Chinese exports to Iran have collapsed from about USD 1.2 billion in October 2018 to just USD 391 million in December 2018—a fall of nearly 70 percent.
◢ Drawing from discussions held at the 5th Europe-Iran Forum on May 14 in Paris, France, this report argues that in creating a special purpose vehicle for Iran trade, Europe should constrain the initial focus of the entity on humanitarian goods, creating a humanitarian special purpose vehicle or H-SPV. In doing so, Europe can be more ambitious in the mechanism used by the H-SPV to facilitate Europe-Iran trade and investment in the face of U.S. secondary sanctions. The report is a joint publication of the European Leadership Network and Bourse & Bazaar.
◢ Drawing from discussions held at the Iran Financial Future Summit on May 29, this report outlines a "new banking architecture" to facilitate Europe-Iran trade and investment in the face of U.S. secondary sanctions. At the center of this architecture is the creation of an "EU-OFAC," a regulatory body that would support measures in compliance and legal protection. The report is a joint publication of the European Leadership Network and Bourse & Bazaar.
◢ Following President Trump's decision to reissue key sanctions waivers and keep the United States in the Iran Deal for the time being, Bourse & Bazaar is launching a special report on the two year anniversary of the implementation of the JCPOA. This report draws on a new survey designed and implemented in collaboration with International Crisis Group. The survey includes detailed insights from over 60 multinational senior executives working in Iran. The survey was administered in December 2017.
◢ A survey taken among a sample of business, government, and civil society leaders reveals that most respondents anticipate the United States to re-impose the sanctions that were lifted under the nuclear agreement (JCPOA). Also, a majority of both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents agree that if the sanctions are re-imposed, European companies would become averse to trading and investing in Iran.
◢ Large majorities of Iranians say growing trade and business tides between Iran and other countries is mostly beneficial for Iran and believe that Iran would mostly benefit from allowing multinational companies to freely compete with Iranian companies. Large majorities also think that Iran should make it easier for multinational companies to operate inside Iran.